Vote!

[Karen]

I hope this is not an inappropriate place to remind all those US citizens to vote tomorrow if you haven't already cast your ballot. Please. This is a very important election.

[vakie]

All the polls I've seen point to a landslide.. but you can never be sure.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral college prediction as of Nov. 3: Obama 353 - McCain 185.

http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com/results

The world has already voted: Obama 86.9% (649,734 votes) - McCain 13.1% (97,658 votes).

Results from 247,455 US voters: Obama 79.8% - McCain 20.2%.

If Obama doesn't win, there's something seriously wrong with using the electoral college system.

[Garibaldi's Hair]

If Obama doesn't win, there's something seriously wrong with using the electoral college system.

It doesn't take an unexpected result in this election to make the electoral college system a bust ... even the British Labour Party kicked it out a number of years ago and moved to a one member-one vote system.

[glindros]

I took advantage of early voting.

Karen, given your anxiousness I would assume you did too.

Regardless of your vote, participate!

[Karen]

Snohomish County here in Washington is all mail-in ballots. Beginning the Thursday before elections you can drop your ballots in drop boxes and save a stamp. (Which I do and did!) I talk to my 8 year old about the ballot and take her with me to the drop box. I am hoping she will internalize this and become a regular voter herself in 10 years.

Now I get to wait about 6 more hours east coast early returns. I need something to bite my fingernails over!

[Doom Shepherd]

If Obama doesn't win, there's something seriously wrong with using the electoral college system.

No, but there's been something wrong with the polling process for some time, given that it also predicted a Kerry win in 2004.


My prediction is it's going to be closer than the polls indicate.

Of course, I live in Western PA, and we're all racist here. Congressman Murtha (D) says so.

[OmahaStar]

The polls also said Gore would win in 2000. The polls are meaningless, ESPECIALLY in this case.

1 - You've got people who say they're voting Obama, because he's Democrat, but in the booth change because they don't want a non-white in charge.

2 - You've got people who say they're voting McCain, because that's what their families want (and they're listening in on the call), but in the voting booth will vote something different.

3 - You've also got those people who say whatever they think the caller wants to hear. I worked (briefly) for Gallop, less than a month, about 10 years ago ... In the job of calling out, I learned, it was VERY easy to get people to say what you wanted them to say, giving them leading questions. CNN or whoever is paying for two questions, but if you lead up to those two with six other related questions, you can get the person you're calling into the mindset you want. I'm not saying they still do this, but 10 years ago, it was standard practice. It's the main reason I left.

[vakie]

No, but there's been something wrong with the polling process for some time, given that it also predicted a Kerry win in 2004.


My prediction is it's going to be closer than the polls indicate.

Of course, I live in Western PA, and we're all racist here. Congressman Murtha (D) says so.

Atleast the polls I saw in 2004 were saying it could go either way.

The electoral vote predictions were changing back and forth, from 230 to 280 for either candidate, right up to the election.

If you go back through the polls on http://www.electoral-vote.com/, you'll see on Nov 1 the polls said Kerry 298 - Bush 231.

On Nov 2 it changed to Kerry 262 - Bush 261, with a lot of states too close to call.

The actual result ended up being Kerry 252 - Bush 286, so I'd say the polls weren't too far off. It was just too close to call.

This time it's completely different. Obama is leading by a clear margin in all the states Kerry won, and in several which Kerry lost.

If you look at the graph, you'll see things started going horribly wrong for McCain around the end of September, when Palin entered the picture.

There's also a graph for 2004, and you can see how close it was.

[Karen]

Actually it was the economic meltdown that sealed it for McCain. His grandstanding and politicizing about the crisis turned a lot of people against him. (IMHO) But it was truly nice to vote FOR someone in this election, instead of against the other guy.

[Dr Maturin]

Actually it was the economic meltdown that sealed it for McCain.

As much as people talk about the economy, I really wonder how much they know about the nature of its current problems.

But it was truly nice to vote FOR someone in this election, instead of against the other guy.

Now we know what it feels like. But it's different in that we're voting against a candidate for a complete lack of qualification rather than against one whom we don't like (although we don't).

[vakie]

The results are starting to come in.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Obama 146 - McCain 159 at the moment, but don't panic. In some places only 1-5% of the votes are in.

8:15 PM EST Update. Obama Wins Pennsylvania

NBC has called Pennsylvania for Obama based on exit polls. Without Pennsylvania, it will take a near miracle for McCain to win.

8:20 PM EST Update. CNN Calls Some States

CNN has called Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, and Massachusetts for Obama and South Carolina and Tennesse for McCain.

8:40 PM EST Update. CNN Calls Pennsylvania

Based on the exit polls, CNN has now also called Pennsylvania. Without Pennsylvania, McCain has a very, very steep hill to climb. He has now lost New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the only Kerry states he has a chance to win. He has almost no chance in Iowa or New Mexico. That means he has to win every single swing state. He has no margin for error at all.

[vakie]

CBS are calling Ohio for Obama, and are saying it's almost over for McCain.

Obama 194 - McCain 124 atm according to them.

[vakie]

206 - 135 now, and I have to agree it's all over for McCain.

California is 61% versus 35% in the polls for Obama. 56% - 39% in Oregon, 54% - 39% in Washington. Just those 3 states put him up at 279 electoral votes, and make him president. There's not enough numbers left on the map anymore to help McCain.

[Dr Maturin]

Now is the time to rebuild our party. I am still amazed that John McCain got the nomination. Also, it will be a delight to pick apart what is sure to be a disaster of a term for Senator Obama. Not even Jimmy Carter said that the US Constitution was flawed.

[vakie]

CBS have gone ahead and announced Obama as president, and the crowd in Chicago at his HQ have gone wild.

283 - 145.