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My comments on NASA Administrator Mike Griffin's speech to the Space Transportation Association. This basically reiterates what NASA has been saying for the last few years.
* The Shuttle is being dumped in 2010. Comment this means the USA is dropping out of the space race.
* Americans will go to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2011 on Russian rockets. Comment Embarrassing.
* (Comment what happens in 2012, 2013, 2014 is undefined.)
* What happens to the ISS after 2016 when the money runs out is undefined. Comment either NASA gets a very big increase in budget or the ISS will be dropped into the Pacific Ocean.
* NASA hopes to buy rockets to move cargo, such as food, to the ISS using a program called Commercial Orbital Transportation Services II (COTS II). COTS I consists of NASA giving rocket manufactures a tiny amount of money to design new rockets.
* Griffin wants to go to Mars.
* The Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) is being implemented using Project Constellation. This includes a new small rocket (the Crew Launch Vehicle CLV) called Ares_I, a new capsule Orion (also called the Crew Exploration Vehicle CEV) and a heavy-lift launch vehicle known as the Ares_V. A new Moon lander is planned as well.
* The Moon landing is due in 2020.
* The Orion is meant to fly on the Ares_I as near to 2010 as possible. Comment the launch has already slipped to 2015.
* Ares_I and Orion are not meant to be the replacement for the Shuttle but could do it.
* Griffin does not like the EELV rockets, particularly for launching people. Comment the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) are rockets developed for launching military satellites with a mass of up to 20 - 27 metric tons.
Comments
There are rumours coming out of NASA that the Orion is going to weigh about 23 metric tons but the Ares_I can allegedly only safely lift about 15 - 19 metric tons. There is also a major vibration problem (major = will kill the crew) that NASA thinks it can solve.
(Find alternative and first hand sources before quoting this.)
The EELV are expensive rockets but they are the only high probability way of getting astronauts to the ISS in 2012 on a "Made in USA" rocket. Cheaper cargo rockets may be nice but they are not urgent.
To fly people on the EELV either NASA would have to ignore its safety rules or pay for significant design changes to man-rate them.
The USA has not had a capsule able to carry people since Apollo, the Orion in 2015 (with luck) is too late to be the next one.
2015 is near the end of the second term of the next US President, a disgraced NASA will be lucky to survive that long.
2020, the with lots of luck Moon landing year, is the re-election year for the President after that.
NASA can afford to support one and only one of the ISS, Moon Base or Mars trip with out a big budget increase.
There is a rival proposal for Moon rockets called DIRECT. The Jupiter-120 would lift the people and the Jupiter-232 heavy cargo like Moon habitats. They claim that the J-120 could fly by 2012.
http://www.directlauncher.com Direct proposal website
* The Shuttle is being dumped in 2010. Comment this means the USA is dropping out of the space race.
* Americans will go to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2011 on Russian rockets. Comment Embarrassing.
* (Comment what happens in 2012, 2013, 2014 is undefined.)
* What happens to the ISS after 2016 when the money runs out is undefined. Comment either NASA gets a very big increase in budget or the ISS will be dropped into the Pacific Ocean.
* NASA hopes to buy rockets to move cargo, such as food, to the ISS using a program called Commercial Orbital Transportation Services II (COTS II). COTS I consists of NASA giving rocket manufactures a tiny amount of money to design new rockets.
* Griffin wants to go to Mars.
* The Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) is being implemented using Project Constellation. This includes a new small rocket (the Crew Launch Vehicle CLV) called Ares_I, a new capsule Orion (also called the Crew Exploration Vehicle CEV) and a heavy-lift launch vehicle known as the Ares_V. A new Moon lander is planned as well.
* The Moon landing is due in 2020.
* The Orion is meant to fly on the Ares_I as near to 2010 as possible. Comment the launch has already slipped to 2015.
* Ares_I and Orion are not meant to be the replacement for the Shuttle but could do it.
* Griffin does not like the EELV rockets, particularly for launching people. Comment the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) are rockets developed for launching military satellites with a mass of up to 20 - 27 metric tons.
Comments
There are rumours coming out of NASA that the Orion is going to weigh about 23 metric tons but the Ares_I can allegedly only safely lift about 15 - 19 metric tons. There is also a major vibration problem (major = will kill the crew) that NASA thinks it can solve.
(Find alternative and first hand sources before quoting this.)
The EELV are expensive rockets but they are the only high probability way of getting astronauts to the ISS in 2012 on a "Made in USA" rocket. Cheaper cargo rockets may be nice but they are not urgent.
To fly people on the EELV either NASA would have to ignore its safety rules or pay for significant design changes to man-rate them.
The USA has not had a capsule able to carry people since Apollo, the Orion in 2015 (with luck) is too late to be the next one.
2015 is near the end of the second term of the next US President, a disgraced NASA will be lucky to survive that long.
2020, the with lots of luck Moon landing year, is the re-election year for the President after that.
NASA can afford to support one and only one of the ISS, Moon Base or Mars trip with out a big budget increase.
There is a rival proposal for Moon rockets called DIRECT. The Jupiter-120 would lift the people and the Jupiter-232 heavy cargo like Moon habitats. They claim that the J-120 could fly by 2012.
http://www.directlauncher.com Direct proposal website
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