Guessing Game - WWtWGASE?

[Macbeth]

I think that the answer is never. I think that the Union will break (as was prophecied?) and replacement writers, or hungry/ambitious members of the WGA will start going back to work for the Studios - or the Studios will source content/writing globally. WGA member writers will start selling into non-traditional channels fueled by Youtube, global content etc. but how long will they resist not selling to their biggest buyers? This whole studio/union closed shop will fly apart primarily through the disruptive influence of technology and a globalizing populace.

There is a growing global demand for content and a growing number of distribution channels. The Studios and WGA are only one supplier of content and between them they control only a couple of distribution channels (albeit pervasive ones in North America)

So the strike will not officially end, it will fizzle. It may never officially end. If I am going to pick a date when it becomes semi-offically recognized that it is done I will pick the start of the second fall TV season which will have a full slate of programming - the day after Labour Day that year September 8, 2009 I do not know if this qualifies for the contest, but it is what I believe is going to happen.

[RMcD]

So, put Macbeth down for 'never' then??

[Jan]

What?! I wanted the 11th of Icosioctober!!

I'm sorry, RB, that date isn't avaliable in the present space/time/continuum.

Jan

[Jan]

After coming here quite a long while, what a great time to register

Welcome, Calen, and thanks for the kind words. I'll confirm your guess as soon as I get home to my Official WWtWGASE Master Spreadsheet of Guesses but I wanted to welcome you out of lurkdom.

Jan

[Jan]

If I am going to pick a date when it becomes semi-offically recognized that it is done I will pick the start of the second fall TV season which will have a full slate of programming - the day after Labour Day that year September 8, 2009 I do not know if this qualifies for the contest, but it is what I believe is going to happen.

I'll put you down for Sept. 8, 2009, Macbeth. The rest of your post is interesting and it might be a good idea to post it to the Is The Screenwriter's Strike Scaring You? thread for discussion.

Jan

[SmileOfTheShadow]

I'll gueessss....

May 6th, 2008.

[raw_bean]

I'm sorry, RB, that date isn't avaliable in the present space/time/continuum.

Jan

You mean you guys don't have 28 months here? Bugger this, I'm heading back to my own dimension!

[Jan]

Calen and Smile, I've got you set. Raw Bean, I've very sorry to disappoint you but the twelve months we use are really the Very Best Months of All.

And here's the latest list:

11/27/2007 Talwyn
11/28/2007 Raw Bean
11/29/2007 RMcD
11/30/2007 Frulad
12/1/2007 Calen
12/7/2007 Aaron B
12/12/2007 Spoo Junky
12/16/2007 Zoltan
12/20/2007 Karen
1/12/2008 Jan/BabylonLurker
1/15/2008 Joansie
1/19/2008 Carl/wwwMwww
1/25/2008 DeMonk
2/5/2008 FuryPilot
3/15/2008 LuvB5
5/6/2008 Jon/Smileoftheshadow
6/19/2008 Milkman

Kep 'em coming!

Jan

[AaronB]

Calen and Smile, I've got you set. Raw Bean, I've very sorry to disappoint you but the twelve months we use are really the Very Best Months of All.

And here's the latest list:

11/27/2007 Talwyn
11/28/2007 Raw Bean
11/29/2007 RMcD
11/30/2007 Frulad
12/1/2007 Calen
12/7/2007 Aaron B
12/12/2007 Spoo Junky
12/16/2007 Zoltan
12/20/2007 Karen
1/12/2008 Jan/BabylonLurker
1/15/2008 Joansie
1/19/2008 Carl/wwwMwww
1/25/2008 DeMonk
2/5/2008 FuryPilot
3/15/2008 LuvB5
5/6/2008 Jon/Smileoftheshadow
6/19/2008 Milkman

Kep 'em coming!

Jan

Jan, for those dates that have a multiple people do you have some sort of tie breaker? Maybe guessing the total number of meetings the both sides had?

[Jan]

Jan, for those dates that have a multiple people do you have some sort of tie breaker? Maybe guessing the total number of meetings the both sides had?

Oops, that is misleading, isn't it. No, there's no multiple people on any of the guesses (since my mistake was fixed, anyway). Some of the folks here sign themselves as their real names as well as their user names so I've got both listed. Jan/Babylonlurker usually signs as 'Jan from Denmark' and Jon/SmileoftheShadow is one person as is Carl/mmmWWWmmm. It just seemed right to acknowledge any identities that they're known by.

Hopefully that came out making some small amount of sense.

Jan
from Florida

[AaronB]

Oops, that is misleading, isn't it. No, there's no multiple people on any of the guesses (since my mistake was fixed, anyway). Some of the folks here sign themselves as their real names as well as their user names so I've got both listed. Jan/Babylonlurker usually signs as 'Jan from Denmark' and Jon/SmileoftheShadow is one person as is Carl/mmmWWWmmm. It just seemed right to acknowledge any identities that they're known by.

Hopefully that came out making some small amount of sense.

Jan
from Florida

It was perfectly clear.

Aaron
from New York by way of Pittsburgh

[raw_bean]

Oops, that is misleading, isn't it. No, there's no multiple people on any of the guesses (since my mistake was fixed, anyway). Some of the folks here sign themselves as their real names as well as their user names so I've got both listed. Jan/Babylonlurker usually signs as 'Jan from Denmark' and Jon/SmileoftheShadow is one person as is Carl/mmmWWWmmm. It just seemed right to acknowledge any identities that they're known by.

Hopefully that came out making some small amount of sense.

Jan
from Florida

I post (occasionally) on the newsgroup under Robin Moss. "Raw Bean" is just a corruption of my name that's been a real-world nickname of mine for years.

Robin, from Huddersfield in the UK.

[JoeD80]

If I am going to pick a date when it becomes semi-offically recognized that it is done I will pick the start of the second fall TV season which will have a full slate of programming - the day after Labour Day that year September 8, 2009 I do not know if this qualifies for the contest, but it is what I believe is going to happen.

Don't forget that the strike affects movies as well as TV shows. Would the studios wait that long for new movies?

I'll take April Fool's Day 4/1/2008

[Jan]

April 1, 2008 it is, JoeD!

Jan

[Macbeth]

Don't forget that the strike affects movies as well as TV shows. Would the studios wait that long for new movies?

I'll take April Fool's Day 4/1/2008

Good point - Although I think movies will get writers. Lot's of aspiring/starving writers who will toss aside the Guild for the cash and prestige a movie will bring.

Alternatively movies can more easily be "outsourced" than TV. Say I want to make a movie about giant robots. No reason that if I am filming on location in say Morocco and Sydney, getting the F/X done by say WETA in NZ and using an international cast doing American accents that I have to use a Hollywood WGA writer. I am sure I can find someone to write it.

TV shows that (generally) have teams of writers and a different process will be harder to replace wholesale in the near term. I think it will take longer and as such that is why I said when the TV shows come back, it will be the "semi-official" end.

Start showing the UK version of the Office